Crisis Driven Orphanhood

February 26, 2025

Crisis Driven Orphanhood

Estimates and Policy Response to Protect Children

Deaths of parents and grandparent caregivers due to social and health crises significantly threaten child well-being, leading to losses in financial support, physical safety, family stability, and care. Yet, this is rarely recognized as a public health crisis. Using data science and epidemiologic methods, and relying on vital statistical information from a variety of settings, a January 2025 report in Nature Medicine, "Orphanhood and caregiver death among children in the United States by all-cause mortality, 2000–2021," estimated that nearly 3 million children in the United States experienced orphanhood due to all causes of death among parents and caregivers. Webinar participants discussed the findings of this report and the adverse consequences that affect children and adolescents in the immediate and long term. The webinar also provided evidence-based solutions that may benefit families and children and can be delivered in numerous settings worldwide.

To understand how these deaths affect children globally, webinar participants showcased growth in all-cause orphanhood across the African continent, as well as the high prevalence of orphanhood in Colombia and Brazil. Estimates derived from these analyses provided a more comprehensive and comparative view that includes countries of high, middle, and low income. Evidence-based responses due to these problems were accordingly contextualized to each region. Strengthened policy responses highlighted effective action and the need for advocacy.

This event was co-sponsored by the Collaborative on Global Children's Issues, the Thrive Center for Children, Families, and Communities, and the Global Reference Group on Children Affected by Crisis.

Participants

Chris Desmond

Chris Desmond holds the Derek Schrier and Cecily Cameron Chair in Development Economics at the School of Economics and Finance, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. He is an economist focusing on human development over the life course. His work seeks to understand how taking a more holistic view of people influences how you respond to them. Desmond has worked to develop approaches to economic evaluation that allow for the incorporation of such a perspective. He has worked extensively with international organizations—including UNICEF, USAID, and the World Bank—and governments in eastern and southern Africa.

Kirsten Di Martino

Kirsten Di Martino has served as the global lead for child protection systems strengthening at UNICEF headquarters since 2018. She has over 25 years of experience in human rights, child rights, and child protection program leadership, including with UNICEF in Kosovo, Moldova, China, Lao PDR, and Germany, where she led UNICEF’s Refugee and Migrant Response from 2016 to 2018. Di Martino has extensive policy and legislative reform expertise across child protection sectors. She worked with the United Nations Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the European Commission, Defense for Children International, and the International Social Service.

Philip Goldman

Philip Goldman is the founder and president of Maestral International, a team of leading global experts supporting the development, strengthening, and coordination of child protection and social welfare systems that meet the needs of children in adversity. Maestral has worked in over 90 countries with UNICEF, USAID, the World Bank, and numerous other NGOs and funders. Prior to Maestral, Goldman worked with the World Bank’s Human Development team focused on social protection and system strengthening. He is a member of the Lancet Commission on Institutionalisation and Deinstitutionalisation of Children and the Global Reference Group for Children Affected by COVID-19.

Susan Hillis

Susan Hillis serves at Oxford University and Imperial College London as senior research officer and co-chair of the Global Reference Group for Children Affected by Crisis. She also serves as dean for continuing medical education for physicians serving in mission hospitals. Hillis’ 160 publications outline evidence-based solutions for children impacted by orphanhood, infectious diseases, violence, and trauma. She previously served as a captain in the United States Public Health Service at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and received the highest non-combat medal, the Meritorious Service Medal, for strengthening public health.

Gillian Huebner

Gillian Huebner is the executive director of the Collaborative on Global Children's Issues at Georgetown University. Huebner's work focuses on supporting the development, strengthening, and coordination of programs and systems to enhance community-based and nationally owned approaches to building young people’s well-being, particularly in times of crisis. She believes in shifting focus from risks and deficits towards strength-based solutions, engaging young people, and other stakeholders to identify what works. She has worked with the UN, the U.S. government, foreign and local governments, private foundations, NGOs, academic institutions, and as an independent consultant.

Joel-Pascal Ntwali N’konzi

Joel-Pascal Ntwali N’konzi is a Ph.D. student in computational mathematics at Heriot-Watt University and the University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom. His research uses statistical methods and machine learning to discover governing equations from data. He is also a research assistant at the University of Oxford, where his work focuses on estimating the incidence and prevalence of orphans in Africa. Beyond his academic interests, he is driven by his desire to contribute to the development of Africa.

Elli Oswald

Elli Oswald is the executive director of the Faith to Action Initiative, a Christian coalition focused on elevating best practices in care for children around the world. Prior to this role, she served as director of mission and outreach at Bethany Community Church in Seattle, where she guided various ministries to the poor and vulnerable in Seattle and around the world. Oswald also served on World Vision International’s Child Development and Rights Technical Team, specializing in community-based care for children deprived of parental care. She earned a master's degree in cross cultural studies and international development from Fuller Theological Seminary.

Karen Phillips

Karen Phillips is the associate director of Restore Hope, a nonprofit using collective impact to help communities solve problems. She leads the expansion of the 100 Families Initiative, strengthening family support systems. With 23 years of experience in grant management, housing development, and program implementation, she helps organizations secure funding and build collaborations. A certified grant management and Community Housing Development Organization (CHDO) specialist, Phillips’ passion is family preservation. As a foster parent, she reunified children with parents and supports families. She serves on multiple task forces addressing homelessness, maternal health, and child welfare.

Oliver Ratmann

Oliver Ratmann is a reader in statistics and machine learning for public good in the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London. Ratmann is an expert statistician and modeler to guide public health interventions, a core member of the Global Reference Group for Children Affected by Crisis, and co-founder of the Machine Learning and Global Health Network. He is a principal investigator of the Orphanhood and Caregiver Loss among Adolescents and Youth (OCAY) program, addressing orphanhood, caregiver loss, and long-term adverse events in young children and adolescents in Colombia.

Laura Rawlings

Laura Rawlings is an internationally recognized expert on international human development with over 30 years of experience leading projects and research on social protection, gender, early childhood development, and behavioral incentives. As lead economist in the World Bank’s Gender Group, Rawlings spearheads analytical work and partnerships as part of the global effort to promote gender equality and women’s empowerment. She has published numerous books and articles in the fields of evaluation and human development. She is a member of the Global Reference Group for Children Affected by Crisis and an adjunct professor in Georgetown University’s Global Human Development program.

Andrea Santos Souza

Andrea Santos Souza has served as a district attorney in São Paulo State, Brazil, since 1988, specializing in children’s rights since 1989 within the juvenile justice and child protection systems. Since 2013, Souza has overseen the child protection system in Campinas, focusing on cases involving children deprived of parental care. She has been the secretary general of the International Association of Youth and Family Judges and Magistrates (IAYFJM) since 2014. Souza holds a law degree, a master’s degree in philosophy (ethics), and a master’s degree in advanced studies in children’s rights. She taught law and social services for 15 years.

Sydney Tucker

Sydney Tucker is a D.Phil. student in social policy and intervention evaluation at the University of Oxford. Tucker is an epidemiologist and biostatistician who focuses on estimating childhood adversity risks and testing interventions to strengthen children in crisis settings. Over the past decade, her experiences range from designing randomized controlled trials testing psychosocial parenting interventions in crisis settings to leading community-based programming for families in crisis, and they span across Asia, North America, South America, Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. Tucker is committed to generating data that fuels action to support children living healthy, flourishing lives.

Juliette Unwin

Juliette Unwin is a lecturer in statistical science at the School of Mathematics at the University of Bristol. She is interested in developing and applying novel methods for infectious disease outbreak analysis to help inform policymakers in real time. Her current research focuses on developing spatial temporal renewal-based transmission models alongside estimating the number of children affected by COVID-19 and crises.

Emma Trout

Emma Trout is an education strategist specializing in co-cognitive skills and the practical application of research. She holds a Doctor of Education in education policy and leadership from Vanderbilt University. She began her career as a high school math teacher in Detroit before leading program development at The Future Project, impacting over 50,000 students nationwide. She later served as an academic dean and is now vice president of programming at The Children’s Collaborative for Healing and Support.